Wednesday, August 02, 2006

A cake solution for our leaders

You’re a mom with two naughty kids. Whenever you bake a cake for them two, you would end up with a headache. They always fight over the size (“Mom, why do I get the smaller piece?), no matter how even and accurate you think you have divided the cake with your expensive knife. What’s the solution? Economics offer you one: let them choose. Try this: toss a coin. If it is “Garuda” the first kid will move first. If it is “500”, the second kid moves first. Suppose it is “Garuda”. The first kid would have to slice the cake. Then the second one would choose which part he or she wants. The first kid would have the remaining part.

Did the story ring a bell? Maybe it did for you who happened to share an apartment with another tenant. Say, you two are to decide who would take which room. Alas, the two rooms are unequal in size. What to do? Try this: toss a coin to decide “who moves first”. Supposed it’s you. Now, you assign a "price" to each room. By "price" I mean, the share in the total monthly rent: bigger room has a bigger share; whoever happens to get it he or she should pay more than the other. Alright, have you assigned the "price"? OK, your job’s done. Now your friend would have to choose which room he or she would take.

Sounds simple. What about if there are three kids? Four? Three, four tenants? Well, we can do it, too. It’s just slightly more complicated. Therefore we have game theory1 courses.

But forget about school. Let’s apply this to something the media (and the so-called "communication experts") really likes to rant about. It’s the “race” between the two CEOs of the country, SBY and JK.2 The President and the Vice President seem to always try to outdo one another in delivering official statements (and even official actions). So far, JK scores higher: he’s very quick in taking decision (good or bad) and acting accordingly (or not accordingly, I should say), while SBY is very careful (too careful, he seems depressed).

We love our leaders. So how about suggesting a fun solution (at least to shut the media up)? Yes, the "cake solution"! Try this. Let the House, DPR, toss a coin. Suppose SBY gets to move first. Then he will list all statements and actions to do this month. Then divide it in two blocks. Next, let JK choose which block he likes to execute…

I know, who says running a country is easy?

1 Game theory is an amalgam of math and econ. Math teaches you the logical steps in playing chess. Econ explains to you why you would want to play those steps.
2 Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono and Jusuf Kalla

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13 comments:

  1. Instead of a sequential game, wouldn't it more fun to watch them in a simultaneous game?

    My "cake solution" : lock them in a room with a knife each, one cake in the middle. Whoever comes out alive with a bigger slice gets to execute. Oh ya, while we're at it.. throw in live TV coverage and Titi Prabowo as expert commentators...

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  2. Wee Beastie, good catch. But who's Titi Prabowo?

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  3. She is the newest addition to our long list of football commentator lineup. Made her debut on SCTV in the last world cup with a big bang. Somehow just cannot get her off my mind..

    Almost forgot, she is also Prabowo's wife, not that it matters or anything..

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  4. Of course, Enda. But, the kids are still fighting... everybody thinks he gets the smaller cake...:-)

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  5. Hilarity ensues at the second stage of the game when people realize that JK is one of those people for whom the phrase "you can't have your cake and eat it too" was created.

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  6. Titik Prabowo WAS Prabowo's wife.. not that it matters anyhow.. :-) Tata's soon to be Tommy's former wife. and Mayangsari is Bambang's other wife. not that they matter at all. but hey, this is a cafe. and cafe's for gosipping, right?

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  7. re the two naughty kids: why would they listen to your economic solution of tossing a coin (it's kinda like john rawls' justice theory of behind a veil of ignorance) if they wouldn't listen to your insisting that the cake had been cut evenly in the first place? any economic, rather than psychological, explanation?

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  8. i know tommy and bambang. but who is mayangsari?
    some chicks?

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  9. Tirta, because if I insist that I have cut the cake into two even slices, I am a dictator. You can call me benevolent, but still, I'm an authoritarian who thinks I'm always right. The kids will always complain, because they are not involved in the process. They don't get to choose.

    If I toss a coin, I don't impose anything (well, maybe just for deciding to toss a coin, and to use the system), the kids would know that I don't have any control to the coin (Head or Tail, Garuda or 500). Why I think the system would work? Because anyone who gets to cut the cake will have all the incentive to cut it "as even as possible". Why? Because (s)he knows that the second kid will choose the bigger one. Would the kids think this system is fairer than Mom's cut? I think so, by judging from the expected outcome: the first kid should not complain afterward because (s)he's the one who cut it. The second kid should not complain either -- (s)he's the one who chose.

    Actually there's an even better system. Toss a coin to grant a right to one kid to decide if (s)he wants to be the "cutter" or the "(piece)-chooser".

    You asked me for "economic"- rather than psychological explanation? Well I don't know what they do in psychology, but this cake solution IS economics. At least, that's economics is supposed to be: a way to explain human's response to incentive.

    Thanks for your question.

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  10. thanks for the response. i was thinking of the prisoner's dilemma variance of the game theory, which i broadly understand as a deadlock condition where you theoretically have no optimal solution. re sby and jk case, they are probably playing this kind of variance.

    if my understanding is correct, one way to get out of the prisoner's dilemma is to have a third party with sufficient authority to impose some kind of solution. since mom is the third party in your opening analogy, a solution for the naughty kids would be to cut the cake evenly. another would be to toss a coin as you've suggested.

    but there's no 'mom' in the sby and jk case, eh?

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  11. Tirta, "mom" for JK and SBY would be the people. Via DPR, to minimize transaction costs (or so we wish).

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