Here is my first attempt to develop an economic model for religion and religious decision. Still far from finished, I only tried to construct the foundations.
This is the background. Several times I was asked these questions: "Do you believe in God?" or "Why do you perform rituals? Doesn't it contradict the rationality arguments?"
My typical answer to the first one is, "I believe for a certain probability that God (and afterlife) exists." For the second one, I usually replied, "In case God does exist, I need to hedge my risk by allocating some time for performing rituals."
A follow-up questions will, usually be, "There are different choices of religion. Will all or some of them provide you a good hedging mechanism (or return on investment), or only one of them will? If more than one do, then why don't you shop around different religions? If there is only one 'correct' religion, then how do you know that your choice is the correct one?"
Well, for sure, I never believe in any monopoly, including monopoly of truth. Hence, I believe that there are many pathways for salvation. However, switching cost is high that it will not be optimal for me to switch to, or shop around, different options.
The bottom line is, yes, religious decision is a rational one.