Wednesday, November 23, 2005

"Who Stands to Gain" Is Not A Proof

If you are as sick and tired as I am of how people buy so much into conspiracy theories, you are not alone. Wikipedia has an amusing entry on this , but I'd just like to point out one of the most annoying lines of twisted reasoning that I often find in our daily newspapers (mostly from interviews with public figures or 'experts', not bylines) so that we'll recognize them next time we see it.

The "Who Stands to Gains" Approach
This refers to the approach, usually used by an 'expert' or a public figure, following a major event such as bombing/economic crisis/tourism slump/kemben melorot, that usually start with a strong denial, "No, it can't be X who did this." Why do you think that's true, Sir, we ask obligingly. "Look, let's see who stands to gain from this bombing/economic crisis/tourism slump/kemben melorot? Who are happy that we are suffering from this bombing/economic crisis/tourism slump/kemben melorot?" asks the so called expert, followed by wink, wink, a pause, and a smile. And before we can say "Sorry, Sir, that's a bunch of bullcra...", he goes for the thumping conclusion, "See, Y stands to gain from this bombing/economic crisis/tourism slump/kemben melorot, so it must be the case that Y is the one who did this."

I'm sure you have seen people say these things, most likely you have seen worse! So let me hear them!.

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